POS - My rebuttal to the NRA in the wake of Newtown

So the head of the NRA today came out and gave a speech blaming everything in the world but guns for the shooting in Newtown, including blaming video games, movies, the music industry, and other things for the shooting (all of which are BS reasons).  He also blamed the fact that there isn't armed security in every school because he thinks that would solve all problems.  Here's the thing:  Columbine had an armed security guard on duty when the shooting happened.  Virginia Tech had an entire armed campus police force.  Northern Illinois University also had an armed campus police force.  He cites the example of banks having an armed guard, but banks are usually small and only one room to cover.  Schools are massive buildings, sometimes even campuses.  My former high school, Stevenson in Lincolnshire, IL, has over 4,000 students.  One cop covering that whole campus isn't going to do much unless he happens to be in the same part of the school when the shooting starts, just like what happened at Columbine.  My college alma mater, Michigan, is even larger, just like a school like Virginia Tech.  Having an armed guard in every school is NOT going to solve the problem, sorry, but thanks for playing!

Furthermore, even if armed security was an option - how are we going to pay for that?  There are 100,000 public schools in this country, approximately.  So, if you put an armed security guard at each school, lets say he's making around $50,000  on average.  $50,000 times 100,000 schools = $5 billion.  And thats just for 1 guard at each school.  As I said, many schools are significantly larger than just single room schools.  So that 5 billion would just be the tip of the iceberg in terms of the costs for a program like this, in order to provide adequate coverage for larger schools.  10 guards per school, and we are now at $50 billion.  100 guards per school?  $500 billion.  Considering the federal government is in the process of driving over the fiscal cliff, where is that money going to come from?  Good luck getting the anti-tax and anti-federal government Republican party to agree to that.  Not to mention, those 100,000+ new security guards are likely to want to form a union (or the teachers unions will demand that they be unionized) so now you're telling me that you can get today's GOP to vote for a tax increase that will create 100,000+ union jobs?  Seriously?

Aside from that, I also find his remarks on blaming video games and movies for violence revolting.  Statistically speaking, his argument has more holes than swiss cheese.  Take just one video game that had been blamed for violence in the Columbine shooting:  Doom.  The Doom series of video games has sold over 10 million units since the first one's release almost 20 years ago.  There have been about 40 school shootings since the game's release.  That means that if every school shooter had played doom, there are 9,999,960 people that played the game that were not driven to a school shooting.  Put another way, that is odds of .000004, or 1 in 250,000.  You have significantly better odds of being struck by lightning in your lifetime (1 in 10,000) or dying in a plane crash in your lifetime (1 in 66,000 given flying one round trip per year on one of the top 25 "safe" airlines).  Conversely, your odds of dying as a result of an assault with firearms is 1 in 321.  But yes, let's keep blaming video games, because that makes more sense.
 

POS - Post election wrapup

So the election has come and gone and we've all had a little bit of time to reflect on the outcomes in all of the races, both locally and nationally.  I wanted to put my thoughts to the page as to how I feel about the outcome of all of the races, so here is my 2012 election wrapup, in nice and easy bullet points format.

Presidential race thoughts:

• So Obama won, and won big (at least in the electoral college).  As I said on my election night mini-post, I predicted he would win all of the swing states except for North Carolina and Virginia.  I was right with the exception of Virginia.
• That's my 2nd accurate prediction with the presidential race this year.  Back in the winter I predicted Romney would be the GOP nominee before the South Carolina primary even occurred.
• I'm not too surprised with the outcome of the election.  Romney was a terrible candidate for the GOP.  Plenty of better options stayed on the sidelines, instead setting their sights on 2016.  Instead they nominated a man who couldn't release his tax returns because they'd reveal something damaging, he couldn't run on his record as a governor because it was too liberal for his base, his flip-flops on positions wrecked the public's trust, and he got killed running on his business cred because of how Bain Capital destroyed a lot of companies.  Not a smart choice by the GOP really.
• This election will really go down in history as a missed opportunity for the GOP.  With 4 more years, Obama has a chance to cement his legacy, and by the time 2016 rolls around, Obamacare will be set in stone and extremely difficult for the GOP to repeal.
• Speaking of 2016, and the future, the GOP really needs to work on expanding their party.  Obama killed Romney among Asians, Hispanics, and African-Americans, by wider margins than any other Democratic candidate in history.  As America heads towards majority minority within a generation, if the GOP doesn't find a way to reach those groups, they will be demographically irrelevant within 30 years.  They're also going to need to find a way to reach out to the youth demographic, but unfortunately as long as they continue to be hard line on gay marriage, they will probably struggle with the under 30 vote.
• The above is especially true among Hispanics.  Less than 20 years ago, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado were red states.  Now they tend to go blue, thanks in part to their growing Latino populations.  If the GOP doesn't do a better job with Hispanics, they stand to eventually lose Arizona and Texas as well.  And once they lose Texas, they can kiss their chances at the White House goodbye, thanks to the Electoral College math.  Maybe they might change their minds about their opposition to the Electoral College after all?
• Man this was a fun week for schadenfreude.  There was Donald Trump's Twitter meltdown/call for revolution (link below in the misc items section), Karl Rove denying reality on Fox News on election night, Ann Coulter all despondent on the radio, Dick Morris' downfall after his extremely inaccurate election prediction of a Romney landslide, and this Tumblr - probably the funniest thing I've seen in awhile.
• On the local radio here in Chicago, they were interviewing a man from Ohio about why he voted for Obama.  He explained that he was a laid off manufacturing employee and he stated he lost his job because he and his company "got Bain'd" when his company was bought out and his job shipped to China.  I fully support the term "got Bain'd" entering the lexicon.  It was little things like that that helped lead to Romney's defeat.

After the jump - my thoughts on Congress/Senate races as well as the major referendums on ballots across the country.  Read on!

POS - Funny secession rebuttal

So secession has been in the news lately, with upset red staters calling for the union to dissolve because they are pissy that Obama won reelection.  I was emailed this funny rebuttal by my dad and wanted to share it with you because I thought this was too good not to share.  Enjoy!

Dear Red States:

We're pissed at your attitudes and politics and we've decided we're leaving.

We in the Blue States intend to form our own country . 

In case you aren't aware that includes California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, and the rest of the Northeast.

We believe this split will be beneficial to the nation and especially to the people of the new country of The Enlightened States of America (E.S.A).

To sum up briefly:
-You get Texas, Oklahoma and all the slave states.
-We get stem cell research and the best beaches.
-We get Andrew Cuomo and Elizabeth Warren. You get Bobby Jindal and Todd Akin.
-We get the Statue of Liberty. You get OpryLand.
-We get Intel, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, & Google. You get WorldCom.
-We get Harvard. You get Ole' Miss.
-We get 85 percent of America's venture capital and entrepreneurs. You get Alabama.
-We get two-thirds of the tax revenue. You get to make the red states pay their fair share.
-Since our aggregate divorce rate is 22 percent lower than your Christian Coalition's, we get a bunch of happy families. You get a bunch of single moms.

With the Blue States in hand we will have firm control of 80% of the country's fresh water, 92% of the nation's fresh fruit, 95% of America's quality wines (you can serve French wines at state dinners) 90% of all cheese, 90 percent of the high tech industry, most of the US low sulphur coal, all living redwoods, sequoias and condors, all the Ivy and Seven Sister schools plus Stanford, Michigan, Cal Tech and MIT.

With the Red States you will have to cope with 88% of all obese Americans and their projected health care costs, 92% of all US mosquitoes, nearly 100% of the tornadoes, 90% of the hurricanes, 99% of all Southern Baptists, virtually 100% of all televangelists, Rush Limbaugh, Bob Jones University, Clemson and the University of Georgia.

We get Hollywood and Yosemite, thank you.

We're taking the good weed too. You can have that crap they grow in Mexico.

Sincerely,

The Blue Wall


Yeah, this about sums up the brainpower behind the calls to secede.

  

POS - 4 more years!

It's 845 PM Central time on election day.  As of right now the polling is incredibly close in most of the swing states, but Fox News has called WI and PA for Obama, and he's leading pretty well in Ohio as well.  I really don't see any way in which Romney pulls off an upset here.  Even though we will be waiting on Florida for awhile, currently separated by about 2,000 votes out of 6 million cast, I feel pretty confident that this election will be going to Obama & the Dems are going to retain the Senate, while the GOP keeps the house.  For swing state predictions - Obama is going to pick up all but Virginia and North Carolina.  That's just my gut feeling.

Now the GOP has no one to blame but themselves.  They nominated a guy that flip-flops like crazy.  Had they had a competent nominee, perhaps they could have won.  They're going to have to do some soul searching now, the question is will they work across the aisle or will they dig in their heels and be even more obstinate?  I guess we'll find out as they address the fiscal cliff coming at the end of this year.

I am glad that Obama will win, and I hope this is not a premature celebration, but WOOOHOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!

POS - Go Vote!

If you haven't voted early, go vote today!  I'm sure you all know where I stand and who I'm planning on voting for (not that my vote matters thanks to the electoral college, as I complained about in this post earlier) but whether you agree with my political views or not, still go vote.  Voting is a great responsibility and a great right that so many around the world do not get to enjoy, so go make sure you enjoy that privilege!

POS - My stance on gay marriage

I'm really tired of gay marriage being an issue in this country.  We seriously have so many far more important things to focus on right now with this country, things that will have ramifications for generations such as the economy, healthcare, the environment, or many other subjects.  Gay marriage should be so far down on our nation's list of priorities, but it seems like it keeps coming back up in election after election.

Here is my stance on gay marriage:  Who cares?

Seriously, if two consenting adults that love each other want to make a commitment to each other, why is it my business or anyone else's business that they want to do so?  I find it a little ironic that the political party most opposed to the institution of gay marriage, the GOP, also advocates shrinking the size and scope of the government.  Yet they want to keep the scope of the government large enough to be involved in the bedrooms of consenting adults.  Seems a little bit hypocritical to me.

But anyways, I am not opposed to gay marriage for one simple reason - I am opposed to all forms of discrimination.  I myself am a part of a heterosexual interracial marriage, a marriage that would have been illegal in some parts of the U.S. less than half a century ago.  Who am I to deny the right to marry to someone else? A right that I wouldn't have had if I had been born a half century earlier instead of the 1980s.

But wait, what about the sanctity of marriage?  Gay marriage will ruin that!  My response to that:  bullcrap.  You know what has ruined the sanctity of marriage?  No-fault divorces, shortlived celebrity marriages (Kim Kardashian's 72 days, Britney Spears' 55 hours, I'm looking at you!), and drive-through wedding chapels in places like Las Vegas.  Seriously, if you can get married without getting out of your car, then the sanctity of marriage was already irrevocably damaged long before homosexuals began being allowed to marry in some states.

There is absolutely no reason why homosexuals should continue to be denied the exact same rights as heterosexuals, such as the tax breaks for married couples, visitation rights in hospitals when your partner is dying, and countless more things that gay couples are denied now.  The Declaration of Independence calls for us to have the inalienable rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.  Any law restricts someone's pursuit of happiness is in violation of the core ideals of our nation.  That is why the anti-gay marriage lobby is pushing for a Constitutional Amendment to ban gay marriage.  It is because deep down they know that bans on gay marriage are unconstitutional, and the Supreme Court will rule that if they ever decide to take up a gay marriage case (which some day they will).

Also, think of the economic boom if gays are allowed to marry.  You just know their weddings will be fabulous!  Think of the economic stimulus!  Legalizing gay marriages will be a direct shot in the arm to the economy, yet another reason in this crappy economy to go ahead and legalize them now.

Bottom line, there is absolutely no reason that two consenting adults shouldn't be allowed to marry.  The state governments should be issuing them marriage licenses just like two heterosexual people can receive now.  If religions don't want to perform the ceremonies, then fine, they can have a civil ceremony or have their ceremony performed by a friend of theirs.  It's not like you can't become an ordained minister online anyways.  I just want this to become legalized so it will go away and stop being a political issue, so we can get back to focusing on what really matters in this country.

POS - Expel the Electoral College

As I mentioned in my last political post, I had a rant coming to the blog about the Electoral College.  For all the things I find aggravating about our political system here in the States, I think the thing I hate the most is the electoral college.  It is an extremely archaic, outdated method of determining the Presidency.  It was developed over 200 years ago during the formation of the Constitution, in an era when rapidly tabulating an accurate vote count for the Presidency and then conveying that information to the officials of our nation was an extremely laborious and time consuming process.  It was also added in as an additional way for keeping the vote out of the hands that didn't deserve it, i.e. the people, and instead keeping control more tightly in the hands of the selected few.  Also, the solution of the Electoral Compromise was a way of getting around the issue of slavery and voting in the South when it came to having a direct vote by the people.

The effect of the Electoral College is very similar to the way that U.S. Senators were elected until the government realized that it was a stupid idea for electing Senators (appointment by your state's congress) in 1913, when the government passed the 17th Amendment to the Constitution, allowing for direct election of Senators.

Read the rest after the jump -->

POS - My reaction to the GOP platform

Ok so the GOP convention just happened and during the convention they released their official party platform of their goals for the country if they are to win the Presidency plus any Congressional/Senate/local elections.  The reaction in the news was swift, with many calling it the most conservative platform the GOP has ever run on.  I decided to read the thing for myself and see what it says, and if there are any good ideas in it or not. A PDF file of the full platform can be found here, it's 62 pages in full, and I present it to you in case you want to see it as I'll be quoting from it for my post today.  In some cases I'll quote the direct text, and in some cases I'll paraphrase.  When I cite the page number, I'm referring to page # x out of 62 of the PDF file, which doesn't match up to the actual page since the first 7 or so pages are not part of the official numbered system the file uses (you'll see what I mean if you open the PDF). 

This post is going to focus on some of the specific goals and policies the GOP plans to pursue and my reaction to them.  Some of the things they mention I liked.  Some I laughed out loud at, because of their foolishness.  Let me know in the comments your thoughts.

One quick thing - for a party so concerned that Muslims are going to come to the country and impose Sharia law, they sure do invoke God a lot.  Kind of makes it hard for Atheists to support them, or non-Christians for that matter.

Ok, now on to the dissection of the platform - follow after the jump for my thoughts section by section.  Apologies in advance for the length of this post, but I feel this election is extremely important to the future direction of our country and I feel an examination of the platforms of both parties (I'll do this for the Dems too) is very critical so you and I know what we're voting for this November.  I'm only going to go over what I feel are the most important issues for the election, otherwise this blog post would turn out as long as the platform itself, and I am not about to write 62 pages.

POS - What Romney would have to do to get my vote

I had originally written this post prior to the announcement of Congressman Ryan as Romney's VP pick and it was supposed to originally go live on the blog on Monday August 13th.  Then Romney had to go and announce his VP on the 11th, resulting in me having to rewrite sections of this post.  I hate having to do more work.  Anyways, on to the post!

For those of you that don't know me too well, I typically vote Democrat with some exceptions.  However, I have been disappointed in Obama's Presidency, even though I feel he has accomplished a lot more than people give him credit for.  So, if there were a viable alternative for my vote, I'd be open to considering it.  (Not that it matters, as I live in a blue state and thanks to the electoral college my vote means squat anyways- but my rant on the Electoral College will be coming to the blog next month on September 4th so check back then, we'll deal with that issue later).  But lets say the electoral college didn't exist and my vote did in fact mean something.  In that hypothetical scenario, these are the things Mitt Romney would have to do for me to even consider voting for him, something he has given me no inclination to do thus far.  So, Mr. Romney - this is what you'd need to do for me to even think of supporting you.

1.  Actually define clearly what it is you intend to do as President. 

Thus far you have been extremely vague on your plans for what you'd do as President.  How exactly will you accomplish things once you are in office?  I need details!  You can’t just say “I’m going to balance the budget” without telling us what programs you intend to cut and just how much you intend to cut them (because we know you aren't gonna raise taxes on yourself or your rich friends).  You aren’t my parent, so saying “because I said so” doesn’t work.  Also, now that you've chosen Paul Ryan as your VP, you need to clearly spell out what exactly is in the Ryan budget in terms of specific programs cut, how much of the budget plan are you endorsing/embracing, and what if any changes you plan on making to the GOP budget proposal put forth by your VP choice.

Read the rest of my thoughts after the jump!  --->

POS - Romney chose Ryan

So Mitt Romney announced his choice of VP - Paul Ryan, a Congressman from Wisconsin.  For those that don't know who he is, he's the guy in charge of coming up with the GOP's budget proposal that despite passing the house has no chance of clearing the Senate.  Why?  Because it drastically ends Medicare as we know it now.  Democrats will never vote to kill one of their greatest legislative achievements.

What have I just gotten myself into?

My initial reaction to hearing of the Ryan pick was to bust out laughing.  Then I stopped laughing to think about what having Ryan on the ticket means for Romney, and then I immediately started laughing harder.  Prior to this pick, the entire Romney campaign was less about Romney and more about a referendum on Obama's Presidency - do we give the guy four more years or not?  Now with the selection of Ryan for his VP, Romney has made this election a very clear choice between two competing ideologies.  On the left - protect Medicare and the middle class.  On the right - massive tax cuts for the rich, shifting the burden of taxes on to the middle class, and ending Medicare as we know it for anyone not already over the age of 55.  Also, in the past, Ryan has backed the wet dream idea of George W. Bush - privatize Social Security.  One of the tax breaks that I personally enjoy very much as a new father - the child tax credit- would be eliminated under the Ryan budget plan.  I'm sorry, but I don't want to be paying more in taxes so that the super-rich get another tax cut.

The election has taken on a whole new tone today.  The GOP is betting that people want to see the federal government get smaller, regardless of how much pain there is for many in the country as a result.  The Democrats are betting that people will not want to see their taxes go up so the taxes on the rich go down even lower, and that they want to protect the social safety net.  If you thought this campaign was ugly with class warfare before, buckle up and hang on, you ain't seen nothing yet.  This is going to be a very ugly and bruising campaign.  Welcome to it Congressman Ryan.

Bonus side note:  Interesting historical fact with this ticket of Romney/Ryan.  With a Mormon (Romney) and a Catholic (Ryan), this is the first ever major party ticket to not have at least 1 Protestant on it.

POS - Olympics Fail & Win

So unless you are in a coma and having someone reading my posts to you aloud (extremely doubtful) you're aware the Olympics are going on right now.  I like the Olympics, and although I cannot watch as much of it as I'd like to (the drawbacks of actually having to work for a living) that doesn't mean that I can't enjoy it as much as I can.  So in the course of this enjoyment, I have come across a couple .gif files that I would like to share with you.  The first is probably one of the most embarrasing Olympics moments ever - a guy loses his grip on his leg while diving, and it causes him to break his somersaults and backflop into the water.  All I can say to this is "Ouch!"


Not only did you fail, you failed in front of a worldwide audience, and in the age of the internet too.  Good luck living this down!

And the second comes from the U.S. womens' soccer team's gold medal victory over Japan, an incredible save from goalie Hope Solo.  This save sealed the win and the gold for team USA.  America! F*** Yeah!



No Soup For You!

I'm already looking forward to the 2016 games, because being in Rio they'll be closer to our time zone so maybe we'll get more live events instead of tape delay.  One can hope so anyways, right?

POS - My thoughts on the Chick-Fil-A situation

So Chick-Fil-A has been in the news a bit lately, thanks to the appreciation day on Wednesday and the same-sex kiss-in on Friday.  There has been some extremely heated debate over the whole situation, and I wanted to weigh in with my own thoughts on it.  This is what I think about the whole situation:

1.  Chick-Fil-A's president Dan Cathy has the right to say whatever he wants to say.  His right to say or do whatever he wants is protected by the Constitution, as long as it is not illegal.
2.  Chick-Fil-A has built its reputation on being a company with very strong Christian values, to the point that they are closed on Sundays.  If anyone is really surprised that the head of the company would be opposed to gay marriage, I'm surprised that they don't have the brain cells to figure that one out on their own.
3.  Just as Dan Cathy has the 1st Amendment right to say whatever he wants doesn't mean that people have to like it.  The people protesting have every much as right under the 1st Amendment to protest the company as the people supporting it.
4.  Chick-Fil-A as a company has the right to spend its money lobbying for whatever it desires, even if they are funding groups that are deemed by the Southern Poverty Law Center as hate groups, so long as it is doing nothing illegal. It's not like CFA is the first company to lobby government for changes.
5.  Customers that don't want to see the money they pay the company for their services have the right to take their business elsewhere.  No one is forcing them to buy the food there, no matter how tasty it may be (I wouldn't know, I've never had their food).  This applies to any company you have a political disagreement with.  I for one try to shop as little as possible at Wal-Mart because of some of their policies.
6.  People that are still shopping at CFA are effectively telling their gay friends (if they have any) that they think tasty fried chicken sandwiches are more important to them than their friendship with that person.  This gentleman's excellent essay on the matter should be read by all:  The Chick Fellatio: Stuck in the craw
7.  Don't treat the employees at CFA like they are the problem.  They just work there.  In this economy, they probably couldn't leave even if they wanted to.  In fact, you may be attacking someone who doesn't agree with your point of view at all, they may even be closeted gay employees. Chick-Fil-A's gay employees speak out 
8.  If you treat the low level employees like dirt, then you are just a douche.  Man fired for bullying Chick-Fil-A employee

Ok those are my thoughts on the matter.  Those of you that know me know where I stand on the debate over same-sex marriage and civil rights (and in the future I'll do a post on that elaborating more) but feel free to continue the discussion in the comments.  For this post I'll be heavily monitoring the comments and I will not hesitate to delete posts if you devolve into hateful name calling.  If there is to be discussion of anything on my blog, it must be civil.

POS - A Modest Proposal on Gun Control

Today in the POS (Politics or Stupidity) section of CRAPOLA I'll be taking a shot at the controversial topic of gun control in the wake of the mass shooting in Aurora CO at a screening of The Dark Knight Rises.  I found myself engaged in a debate on gun control after the shooting happened with some friends and family that are more pro-gun than I am.  And unlike this Modest Proposal, mine today is not a work of satire but a legitimate path for what I think should be done in terms of gun control in our great nation.

I'm going to take a look at some of the arguments about guns, both for and against their spread in our culture, and weigh in on them with my thoughts and ideas for where we should go from here, in the wake of yet another mass shooting.  As most of you know, I'm primarily a Democrat, but I actually do support gun ownership.  I also enjoy firing guns, I think it can be a lot of fun.  I don't own a gun myself, but I have family and friends that own guns.  Personally I would like to own a gun for home protection, but my wife does not want me to have a gun in the house in case our son gets his hands on it.  Like most debates on issues, I think there is clearly a middle ground solution that we can agree is in the best interest of all moving forward.

Guns seized by Mexican police that originated in the U.S.

To start any examination of gun control and gun rights, we need to take a look at the gun laws and their history here in the US.  That look starts with the 2nd Amendment of the Constitution.  We all know how that goes, right?  "The right to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed."  At least that's the text of the Constitution that is most frequently quoted, especially by the NRA and its supporters.  However, that is not the full text, and by omitting the full text, we are missing out on some key ideas behind gun rights.

The full text of the 2nd Amendment is as follows:

"A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed."


Continue reading after the jump ---->

POS - A letter to Senator Durbin

In my business law class this semester during my MBA program we were assigned a writing assignment to write a letter to a government official.  I figured I might as well post it here as well as send it to Senator Durbin, the Democrat Senator from IL, who is the Senate Majority Whip.  It's my thoughts on immigration and also how it needs to be an issue addressed before the election, not after.  So, enjoy!

Senator Dick Durbin

711 Hart Senate Building

Washington, DC 20510

Dear Senator Durbin:

            I am writing to you today about an issue that I feel is extremely important and should not wait until after the November election.  To give you some background on myself:  I am a registered voter in the state of Illinois, and I voted for you both in 2002 and 2008, and in 2006 I volunteered for the Tammy Duckworth Congressional campaign, and I am a consistent voter in all elections, both primaries and general elecitons.  (I am registered as a Republican however, so I can pull a GOP ballot for the primaries in IL to try and make sure that a candidate I hate never gets to the general election).  I am 30 years old, hold a masters degree, married, and have a newborn son.  I am a seventh generation American, but my wife is a naturalized citizen who came to the country legally when she was 7, and the issue that I feel needs to be addressed by our government as soon as possible is the topic of immigration.

            In 2008 then candidate Obama promised to make immigration an issue he would tackle in his first year in office.  Unfortunately, he wasted his political capital on a healthcare reform bill that although noble in intent was extremely poorly sold to the American public, resulting in people hating a bill that in reality they would actually like if they just understood the bill.  Because of this, he allowed immigration to fall by the wayside, and a major campaign promise he made went unfulfilled.  This should not be the case, as not tackling this issue is giving the GOP an opportunity to steal a major voting block from the Democratic Party.  There are estimated to be over 10 million illegal immigrants in this nation, and many millions more recent legal immigrants as well here on student or worker visas, and millions of recently naturalized citizens as well that now are able to vote in elections.  Traditionally, immigrants, especially Latino immigrants, tend to vote Democratic, but if a number of Latinos feel that President Obama betrayed them by not acting on immigration, they might either vote GOP or simply stay home in November.  With how close this election is likely to be, and with the country’s future hanging in the balance, you need to use your role as Majority Whip to get your colleagues to push as hard as they can to get immigration brought to the floor, and part of the political conversation for the fall election.  Just like the recent push for the Buffet Rule, the Senate needs to make a similar push for legislation benefitting immigrants, in order to force it as a wedge issue for the fall.  The Buffet Rule is allowing the debate for the fall to be cast in a class conflict, the 99% vs the 1%.  Having the GOP be just as obstinate on immigration as they are on raising taxes on the wealthy be a heavily discussed topic in the news cycle will cause Latinos to realize that they should not vote for a party that they might agree with on social issues such as gay marriage or abortion.  This will cause Latinos to feel that the President & the Democratic Party are working for them, and that the GOP is actively working against them, and will ensure that the Latino vote remains solidly Democrat for years to come.

(read the rest of the letter after the jump)

POS - And Then There Were Five

Welcome back to CRAPOLA.  Today I’ll be making my first post under the section of POS – Politics or Stupidity.  It’s a look at the Republican primary field and my predictions for what we will see in the next few weeks.

This has been a long and interesting political season for the campaign for the Republican Presidential nomination.  With the withdrawal of Jon Huntsman (my personal favorite in the race), that leaves only 5 remaining candidates for the nomination.  This is my prediction of the order in which they will drop out from here on out.

What comes after 2 again?

1.  Rick Perry.  The Texas governor will not be saved by making his Alamo last stand in South Carolina.  The conservative vote is too fractured between Perry, Santorum, and Gingrich for any of them to build a sizeable challenge to Romney, which hurts all 3 of them but hurts Perry the most.  Perry’s continuous debate gaffes such as forgetting how to count to three, as well as the fact that most of us remember what happened the last time a Texas governor became president, spells doom for his campaign.  He’ll finish no better than 4^th in South Carolina, and then he’ll quit the race within 48 hours of that primary.


**Update - When I predicted Perry would quit within 48 hours of South Carolina, I thought it would be within 48 hours AFTER the election there, not within 48 hours before of it.  He surprised me by quitting early today, a day after I'd posted this.

2.  Rick Santorum.  The other conservative in the race named Rick, this one with the unfortunate Google problem (don’t know what I mean? Just go google Santorum and you’ll see), has the support of far-right Republicans but will draw next to no support from moderate Republicans.  His views turn off the majority of independents and moderates you’d need for a general election victory anyways, so a Santorum candidacy might as well just hand victory to Obama right now.  Seriously, if this guy wins the nomination, Obama will crush him.  I see Santorum dropping out after Florida's primary January 31 unless by a miracle he wins South Carolina or Florida, but I don't see either of those happening.  If he wins or comes very close in those though, I can see him sticking until Super Tuesday also, which would flip him and Ron Paul's spots on this list.

3.  Ron Paul.  Ron Paul isn’t even a Republican, he’s a Libertarian.  If he’s truly serious about being a presidential nominee, he should run 3^rd party as a Libertarian and be done with it.  Some of his views are so extreme that they turn off all of the moderates (pull out of everything overseas period, despite how that would leave our military unable to respond to any global threats), and some of his views (legalize all the drugs, just to name one) turn off all the social conservatives.  Despite his rabid fanbase, he’ll also bow out soon.  His fanbase will keep him in it through the Nevada caucuses on February 4th, maybe even through Colorado on February 7th, or all the way to Arizona on Feb 28th.  He might just stick it out until Super Tuesday also just to be obnoxious.

4.  Newt Gingrich.  Although Newt has less support than Paul in many polls, he has one thing the other 3 candidates above don’t have – a boatload of money.  The PACs and Super-PACs supporting Gingrich are flooding the airwaves in key battleground states with anti-Romney ads.  Since he has the money, and the ego, I see Gingrich being the last to concede to Romney, and he’ll go down kicking and screaming.  Unless Romney blows out everyone with wins in South Carolina and Florida where he picks up more than 50% of the vote, Gingrich will hang in the race until Super Tuesday on March 6th because he can afford to do so.

That leaves us with the Republican nominee, the Romney-bot version 2.012.  How effective he’ll be in the general election remains to be seen.  As of right now, the economy is starting to finally, maybe, hopefully pick up some steam.  This will give Obama some leverage over Romney-bot.  Also, the concerted effort by the other candidates to tear down Romney has become a gift that keeps on giving to the Obama campaign.  Obama will simply keep using the same arguments against Romney that his own party rivals are using, such as the fact that he’s an out of touch millionaire making $10,000 bets, or the fact that he only pays taxes at a 15% rate, or that he’s been pro-life for less time than Kim Kardashian has been famous.  The Romney-bot is a calculating political machine, pandering whenever he feels it will help him.  Unfortunately, all that pandering is making him appear to be a flip-flopper, and Democrats can’t wait to tar Romney with that brush just like Kerry was in 2004. 

Romney’s quote about enjoying firing people is going to haunt him as well.  I won’t be surprised if every single campaign commercial for the rest of the election includes that sound bite, even if it is about something other than the economy.  He really blew his own foot off with a grenade launcher on that one.  Ultimately, Obama is going to paint this election as a choice between the working class man working for the middle class versus the out of touch corporate greed machine that mercilessly guts companies and hands out pink slips by the bucket load.  Yes it is class warfare, and it is going to work spectacularly for the Obama campaign, giving him four more years in office.

Oh what might have been:  Tim Pawlenty has to be kicking himself for not staying in this race longer; and Mike Huckabee has to be asking himself why he didn’t enter the race in the first place.  Both would have been great alternatives to Romney-bot, but both left the race or didn’t even enter it in the first place, more than a year ago.  Oh well.  I’ll also miss the underappreciated Huntsman.  Here’s a guy that could actually appeal to moderates like myself because he actually believes in Global Warming.  But, after hearing that and his stance on Evolution (that’s real too) as well as the fact that he puts country ahead of party, spelled his doom because the Tea Party wing of the party could never support anyone that was willing to work with or compromise with the Democrats for the sake of getting things done (such as the Mandarin speaker being the ambassador to China under Obama).  It just shows how wide the divide has become in our country, where a politician who puts the country before himself and his party is actually punished for putting the needs of the country first.  Why has that become so horrible?  It just goes to show how screwed we are as a country as long as politics is so fractious.  Oh well.